TBILISI, June 4 – Georgia has finally put the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway into full operation, nearly 20 years after the project was launched.
But transport expert Paata Tsagareishvili says the line enters service with old problems, weak cargo numbers and growing competition from Turkey’s wider railway plans in the South Caucasus.
Tsagareishvili, director of the Transport Corridor Research Center, told Interpressnews that the railway is an important strategic asset for Georgia and a powerful new branch of the Middle Corridor, the route linking Asia and Europe through the South Caucasus. But he also said the project was badly managed from the start.
“Today, the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway may be assessed as a project implemented over a long period, with low financial return, concession of the country’s strategic interests and, overall, weak management by the state of a financially intensive infrastructure facility,” he said.
The project dates back to 2007, when the presidents of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Turkey signed a trilateral agreement to build the railway. Tsagareishvili said almost 20 years was too long, and blamed early decisions by the Georgian state for handing too much financial and management control to Azerbaijan.
According to him, Georgia could have used its own railway resources and financial institutions to carry out the Marabda-Akhalkalaki reconstruction and the new line toward Turkey. He said local project estimates at the time suggested USD 250 million to USD 300 million could have been enough, instead of the USD 775 million model involving Azerbaijani financing and Azerbaijani companies as general contractors.
He also criticized Georgia for giving Azerbaijan 50 percent of the levers for future tariff policy and management after completion of the railway. In his view, this gives Azerbaijan influence over where cargo flows are directed.
Tsagareishvili said the project was further delayed by political statements made in Georgia after the change of government in 2012, when concerns were raised that cargo might be diverted from Georgian ports to the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars line. He said this caused a reaction from Azerbaijan and helped freeze the project for at least three years.
The line has a stated capacity of 5 million tons a year, but the expert said only 1.8 million tons of transit cargo has moved through it in total since it began operating in test mode.
Tsagareishvili said the railway is still underused as a Middle Corridor branch. Its formal capacity is 5 million tons, but he said its actual capacity, because of technical equipment, does not exceed 2 million tons. In 2025, he said, only 150,000 tons were transported on the route, equal to just 7.5 percent of its actual capacity.
To become financially viable, he said, the railway needs stable bulk cargo such as grain, mineral fertilizers, coal, metal structures, cast iron and construction materials. Expert estimates put potential annual cargo between regions at 2.5 million to 3 million tons, if countries including Kazakhstan, Russia and China contribute stable flows. For now, he said, high logistics costs make that difficult.
Armenian cargo could help. Tsagareishvili estimated that around 400,000 tons a year could move from Armenia through Marabda and Akhalkalaki toward Europe and back. That would be especially useful while Armenia’s direct Kars-Gyumri railway link with Turkey remains closed.
He also said opening the Akhalkalaki station together with the full launch of Baku-Tbilisi-Kars could help Georgia’s Javakheti region. During the test period, local businesses could not use the station for normal import and export loading operations. Local cargo alone could reach 100,000 to 150,000 tons a year, he estimated. Together with Armenian transit cargo, total additional flows could reach 500,000 to 600,000 tons a year.
“This volume of cargo flow would definitely make the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway viable,” he said.
But technical problems remain. The Akhalkalaki station handles the shift between different rail gauges. Changing wagon bogies raises logistics costs, especially for low-value goods such as grain, coal and fertilizers. Tsagareishvili said a double bogie-change operation costs USD 500 per wagon, making the route less attractive for some cargo. Container transfer from one track gauge to another is cheaper and is therefore the main current use.
He said one possible solution would be a combined 1520/1435 mm track, similar to systems being introduced at the Ukraine-EU border. This would reduce the need for bogie changes, cut operating costs and speed up cargo movement. But he also noted that such a solution would reduce the value of Akhalkalaki’s logistics role.
Russian-origin cargo may also enter the route. Tsagareishvili said the project originally envisioned transporting Russian grain to eastern Turkey, and that elevators in Kars were built for simultaneous storage of 400,000 tons of wheat. He said Russian cargo should be seen as realistic and positive for the route, depending largely on Turkey-Russia relations.
The bigger challenge, he said, is Turkey’s growing railway reach across the region. Turkey is building a 224-kilometer line toward Nakhchivan, connecting Kars, Iğdır, Aralık and Dilucu. The line is planned as double-track, electrified and signalized, with capacity of 15 million tons a year. It began in August 2025 and may be finished in two to three years, he said.
Turkey may also need only 12.4 kilometers of restored railway to reconnect with Armenia, if the political decision is made.
That means Kars could become the starting point for three separate South Caucasus directions: Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. Tsagareishvili said this gives Turkey a dominant position.
Under those conditions, he said, Turkey could offer different tariffs to the three South Caucasus countries and choose the most competitive route for cargo. For Georgia, that means Baku-Tbilisi-Kars will be entering a tougher race.
