TBILISI, October 3 – On the eve of Georgia’s local elections, parts of the opposition are promising what they call a “peaceful revolution.” The dramatic language has raised tensions in Tbilisi, where analysts warn that the country may be heading for a confrontation with echoes from its turbulent past.
According to Rezonansi, opposition organizers initially sought permission to set up four stages in the capital but were denied by the city government. Meanwhile, exiled former president Mikheil Saakashvili has urged supporters to recall the Rose Revolution of 2003, when protesters forced Eduard Shevardnadze from power.
Analysts say the opposition is betting everything on this week’s protests. Political commentator Zaal Anjaparidze told Rezonansi that past uprisings in Georgia started peacefully before demands escalated beyond what the government could accept. “They try to fuel people’s anger,” he said, noting that if authorities successfully suppress the demonstrations, opposition groups may be sidelined for years.
Security preparations are heavy. Reports suggest up to 4,700 special forces officers could be deployed. Some experts believe a peaceful outcome is still possible if police step aside, as they did in 2003. Nika Chitadze of the International Black Sea University said, “It is possible, if a large mass of people come out. Difficult, but possible.”
Anjaparidze noted that unlike in 2003, today’s government does not appear weakened from within. He also stressed that protesters have not explained how a “technical government” would function or what immediate impact it would have on the economy, prices, or currency stability. “Uncertainty may hold part of the population back.”
“This also has its international dimension, Europe and the US are closely monitoring the ongoing processes here, and I have little doubt that some help will come from them,” the analyst suggested.
The opposition used strong language about a ‘revolution’ for weeks, but was toned down before the election. The main rally led by opera singer Paata Burchuladze near parliament followed legal procedures to obtain a permit from City Hall. Two generals Mamuka Khurashvili and Zaza Gogava released a video statement rejecting violence, something that Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze welcomed.
But in stern language Friday, the PM warned Georgians not to take part in any violent acts. Kobakhidze said talk of “overthrowing” the government inherently implies the use of violence and urged people to avoid provocations, warning that participation in such violence could lead to “many years” in jail.
