(Interpressnews.)

TBILISI, DFWatch–Georgia’s economy is beginning to feel the effects of growing global instability, as analysts warn of a potential inflation risk and call for caution in the monetary policy.

The National Bank decided at its June 18 meeting to keep its key refinancing rate unchanged at 8%, citing economic uncertainty. Bank officials aim to maintain inflation near 3% in the medium term, as they try to support continued economic growth.

Even though inflation has been rising, international developments, especially two wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East, are adding uncertainty, Otar Nadaraia, Chief Economist at TBC Capital told Rezonansi. He notes that despite a possible future drop in tourism and rising oil prices, Georgia’s strong inflows of foreign currency and the central bank’s recent interventions have helped maintain macroeconomic stability so far.

Professor Mikheil Tokmazishvili, a financial expert, emphasized that regional conflicts and possible migration flows pose risks that could disrupt trade or financial stability. However, he stressed that the National Bank should maintain its current policy and continue to monitor the inflation level.

Preliminary data show Georgia’s economy grew 8.8% on average in the first four months of 2025, though growth is now slowing toward long-term trends.

The Bank’s next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for July 30.