TBILISI, DFWatch–Rising tensions between Russia and its South Caucasus neighbors are approaching the level of a “trade war”, but one that appears to have brought unexpected benefits for Georgia.
In June, Georgia recorded its highest monthly export figure ever. According to official statistics, exports rose 10.2% year-on-year to USD 639 million, with total trade turnover up 12.7% in the first half of 2025.
The surge comes at a time when Russia is tightening its restrictions on Armenia, adding liquefied gas and possibly tobacco to a growing list of blocked imports. The dispute intensified after Armenian oligarch Samvel Karapetyan was arrested in Yerevan on June 18.
Meanwhile, tensions with Azerbaijan flared following the arrest of over 50 Azerbaijanis in Yekaterinburg, two of whom died.
“Theoretically, we could say that increased tensions might bring certain economic benefits,” said Giorgi Kapanadze, head of the Association of Young Financiers and Businessmen. “But it would be better if such conflicts did not happen at all. Peace has no alternative.”
Economist Soso Archvadze agreed: “Short-term benefits are possible, but in the long term, good relations bring more potential. An economy aimed at construction needs additional resources, and this increases demand—not only internally but in neighboring countries too.”
According to the Transport Corridor Research Center, strained ties between Russia and Azerbaijan could shift freight traffic toward Georgia.
